Predictions on Ames
Ames, Iowa — The polls just closed and the results aren’t in yet, but no hedging is necessary: Michele Bachmann is going to win the Ames Straw Poll. The lines into her tent have been long all day, and they’ve had to buy more tickets to hand out at least twice.
As for the rest of the field: If I had to guess I’d say Ron Paul comes in second. From eyeballing the crowd it looks like there are as many Pawlenty supporters as Paul supporters — the former stand out because the Pawlenty campaign has been handing out green t-shirts — but the Paul supporters are so much more intense in their commitment to their man. Pawlenty’s support is soft enough that, given a random green-shirted man here, I wouldn’t bet my life on T-Paw getting his vote.
From The Note
The general consensus here in Iowa ahead of Saturday’s straw poll is that Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty, and Ron Paul – in some order – will likely compose the top three this weekend, a trio with starkly different styles – and one need look no further than their campaign events to see just how different they are.
When Pawlenty last month visited a sports bar in Indianola, he fielded numerous questions from reporters — whoever wanted to ask one got their chance to do so. When Bachmann spoke at the same bar today, her press availability consisted of answering three questions from reporters who had all been put on a prepared list given to her by her campaign beforehand.
Prediction: Ron Paul will win Ames straw poll
Michael Barone has a persuasive piece on why Rep. Michele Bachmann’s adept political touch in Iowa makes her the front-runner to win the Ames Straw Poll. But I’ve been assuming that Rep. Ron Paul’s rabid fan base, which has propelled him into first in many straw polls this year, will put him over the top on Saturday.
Chris Cillizza has argued that Paul’s success in straw polls is due to the fact that they usually have very small turnout, whereas Ames is quite large by straw poll standards. He notes that in 2007, Paul finished fifth, with 1,305 votes in Ames.
The Brutally Honest Index: Iowa Straw Poll Prediction Edition | Steve Deace
1. Michele Bachmann (21%)
She is clearly the favorite right now, but she faces a real test in Thursday’s pre-Straw Poll debate hosted by Fox News. Barring journalistic malfeasance, she’s going to be asked about signing the controversial FAMiLY LEADER marriage pledge, as well as her husband working to deliver those ensnared by homosexuality via Christian counseling so that they may live the lives God originally created them to live. How she responds to that questioning could very well determine Saturday’s results. If she has a Tim Pawlenty moment of uncertainty, like her fellow Minnesotan had when invited to confront Mitt Romney on Romneycare during the last New Hampshire debate, then the outcome on Saturday will also be uncertain. On the other hand, if she stands her ground then the mystery isn’t whether or not she’ll win, but by how much. By the way, in case you’re wondering where my predicted finish for Bachmann stacks up with past Iowa Straw Poll winners (keep in mind this year’s field is more crowded than past years):
1987—Pat Robertson 34%
1995—Bob Dole & Phil Gramm 24%
1999— George W. Bush 31%
2007—Mitt Romney 32%
2. Ron Paul (18%)
Paul’s support is pretty much locked into the 15-20% range. He has a devoted following that will show up no matter what, but it’s his ability to expand beyond that base that is in question. Nevertheless, if the weather is poor and/or Bachmann bombs the debate on Thursday he may not have to.
Ames Straw Poll Predictions | ChrossTalk
Tim Pawlenty therefore will win the straw poll. While Pawlenty has gained little traction in the national polls, the former governor has the strongest ground game in Iowa. He has the largest number of Iowa county chairs – 29. He has the largest staff in Iowa and had already spent $50,000 on buses for supporters before announcing earlier this month to shift money from T.V ads to buy more buses. Furthermore it’s important to count the desperation factor. Pawlenty needs an Ames victory badly to remain a credible candidate, especially with the entrance of Texas Governor Rick Perry into the race. Campaign discipline will trump the former Minnesota governor’s enthusiasm gap and bring home the title for T-Paw.
Second place will come down to Michele Bachmann’s nascent enthusiasm versus Ron Paul’s strategic investment. Bachmann maybe flying high in the national polls but Paul bought the prized best booth location and is also reported to be going all out, busing 30 members of the family Paul to Ames on Saturday. So while Iowan-born Bachmann may have the home field advantage, at Ames organization is king, and Paul’s extra efforts will snag him second place.
One bonus pick for the road. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum comes in a surprisingly close fourth due to the social conservative nature of Iowa, effectively ending Herman Cain’s campaign.
What are our predictions?
Politisite political projections sees Bachmann winning but Ron Paul could upset Her. Having seen Ron Paul’s folks picket by the thousands, continue support between the elections, and the ability to raise money, I would not be surprised if Paul upsets Bachmann,
I do not think either will be the GOP nominee based on the skill set needed for the next presidency. While I am considered far right on social issues, and have a test on Abortion issues for any candidate, I see Mitt Romney as the potential nominee based on his Business and political experience. We do our best to stay neutral or fair during the primaries but this is just our analysis of our current political situation.
So what are your views? Let us know! You may post in the comment section or vote at Google Plus
What we see during the Caucus / Primary next year:
- Iowa Caucus: Bachmann
- New Hampshire Primary: Romney
- South Carolina: Cain