Politisite provides projections based on a Momentum modality similar to that used in projecting stock prices. Politisite does NOT endorse any candidate during the primary process. Further, we do not receive funding from any political campaign. Having said that, here are our projections for the Michigan Primary for Tuesday February 28, 2012
- Mitt Romney – 36.5% (Tie)
- Rick Santorum – 36.5% (Tie)
- Ron Paul – 12%
- Newt Gingrich – 9.5%
Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich have flat momentum, Ron Paul has slight downward momentum. We believe that Romney will eek out a victory here. The Numbers tell us that either Romney or Santorum could win. Since we are dealing with a 4 percent margin of error, Either candidate could win by as much as 8 points. We think that the winner will be within 4 points.
For third and fourth place: We see Ron Paul third and Gingrich fourth. Paul could reverse and come in forth. We see Santorum winning most of South Western Michigan. If Romney does well in these counties, He could do better than expected in the final result.
Editors Note: Democrats are conducting a bit of Political Mischief in this race. It has been reported here and elsewhere that some left wing sites are promoting crossover voting for Santorum. While this would sound strange to outsiders, the inside story is that the left wants to send a blow to Mitt Romney. Even though left-wing pundits are all over the air waves calling Santorum a religious fanatic, they are now encouraging voters to vote for the candidate they despise.
The Santorum campaign has also made an appeal to Conservative Democrats to vote for him by Robo-calls.
While we stand by our Romney win projection, This political mischief by Democrats could present a situation our numbers can not quantify. The race is tied base don our number, but Santorum could win due to Democrats crossover voting to cause mischief in the race. We think it is possible that Santorum could get an additional two percentage points from this activity.
While it seems strange that any Liberal would pull the lever for Conservative Santorum, we have seen the ability of some of these left-wing groups to bring numbers. One should review the typical voting patterns of the GOP in a Primary election and compare with the numbers received. Look especially for Counties in the Major cities that have higher Democrat voters and compare to see if votes cast for the GOP exceeds previous statistics.