Politisite Political Predictions for the Iowa Caucus Tonight Jan 3rd, 2008.The Iowa Caucus is the most difficult of all of the states to predict. Since a candidate must have 15% of the vote to qualify, last minute changes occur. If Dodd or Biden get 10% of the folks they will have to caucus with their second choice. The second choice is often encouraged by the candidate they supported as their first choice.
Iowa is about being in front of the people. The folks want to get a few things as well. Some folks are getting their driveways shoveled and their children watched for the evening in turn for a vote.
Money is a big part of The Iowa Caucuses. Governor Romney has spent more than 6 million dollars there. Which candidate has the best food? Gives the best gifts? Who gives rides to the Caucus center? Who will watch your children? Sound like buying an election? In part it is, this is Iowa and it is the launching pad for candidates to go to the next state and continue to campaign for the nomination or its time to go home.
Here are my predictions for the Iowa Caucus:
1. Gov. Mike Huckabee, 2. Sen. John McCain, 3. Gov. Mitt Romney, 4. Sen. Fred Thompson
Duncan Hunter will drop out following Iowa. Ron Paul will get 5 to 11% But will Continue to campaign. Giuliani Gets 7 % and his folks go to McCain
1. Sen John Edwards, 2. Barak Obama, 3. Hillary Clinton, 4. Gov. Richardson
Sen. Dodd will drop out. Sen Biden will Go to NH.
Real Clear Politics
1. Huckabee , 2. McCain , 3.Thompson
1. Obama, 2. Clinton, 3. Edwards, 4.Richardson
Evans-Novak Political Report
1st Place: Mitt Romney, 2nd Place: Mike Huckabee, 3rd Place: Fred Thompson, 4th Place: John McCain
1st Place: Barack Obama, 2nd Place: John Edwards, 3rd Place: Hillary Clinton, 4th Place: Bill Richardson
So in the end will it be Politisite.com , Realclearpolitics.com, or Evans & Novak?
I will report the results Late tonight since it is now Jan 3.
This election will be over in the USA the night of Feb 5th.
Next elections in January are
WY Jan 5th (Republican Pimary)
NH Jan 8th
MI Jan 15th
SC GOP, NV Jan 19th
SC Dem’s Jan 26th
FL Jan 29
Politisite will be Credentialed Media for the following presidential debates
Jan 10th Myrtle Beach, SC Fox News Republican Debate with Brit Hume
Jan 16th NPR / ETV Debate Columbia, SC
Jan 21st Congressional Black Caucus / CNN Democratic Debate Myrtle Beach, SC
Jan 24th Floria Atlantic University / MSNBC Debate
Chris Cillizza’s Politics Blog — The Fix
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» » Read The Fix’s Debate Scene Setter: Chris Cillizza handicapped the eight Democratic candidates who are set to debate tonight in Orangeburg, S.C., starting at 7 p.m. ET (on MSNBC). Read the preview here.
Posted at 12:08 PM ET, 01/ 3/2008
Iowa Caucuses — Prediction Time!
After all of the waiting and anticipating, Iowa caucus day is here!
The Fix will be writing a constantly updating news story throughout the late afternoon and evening on washingtonpost.com, which we will be cross-publishing in this space. (The stories will start being published here and on the main site at around 5 p.m. ET.)
In the meantime, what would an Election Day be without predictions? The Fix sampled a selection of unaffiliated political operatives to gather their predictions about the first-, second- and third-place finishers for both Democrats and Republicans. The experts were also asked to predict what THE storyline coming out of Iowa will be.
Most were brave enough to put their names to their predictions. Some were not. (Boo!). A sampling of their answers is provided below. The consensus was that Barack Obama will win the Democratic caucuses and Mitt Romney will emerge on the Republican side. The storyline of choice among these political pros is a stronger-than-expected third-place finish by John McCain that propels him to a win in New Hampshire’s GOP primary next Tuesday.
Iowa Caucus predictions? I want to hear from you!
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