Clinton Wins Michigan, 2nd Place goes to Uncommitted! Politisite Political Predictions for the GOP

Clinton Wins  Michigan, Guaranteed! Uncommitted comes in 2nd. The Republicans too close to call.  But I will call it further down the page.

Hilliary Clinton will win the Michigan
primary. I have not doubts.  I will even venture to give you a
percentage, 80% of the vote.  Delete all of your poll sites and
news services.  I am absolutely correct. But Wait, Uncommitted, who didn’t pay the enterance free to get on the ballot, will come in 2nd. 

O.K. I will confess now.  Hilliary Clinton is the only top tier candidate on the Ballot in Michigan.  Two other candidates left thier names on the ballot,  but all of the attention has gone to uncommitted.   All of the other democrats took thier names off the ballot after the Democratic National Committee took away all of the states delegates when Michigan moved its primary date up several weeks to fall between New Hampshire and South Carolina.  Here is a quick statement from the Democratic National Committee.

Michigan delegate update

As we’ve noted, Florida has been stripped of its delegates due its
early primary. Michigan’s situation, however, is a little more
complicated:

As Iowa voters gear up for Thursday’s caucuses, Michigan Democrats
have just a few days to change their scheduled Jan. 15 presidential
primary or lose all their delegates to the Democratic National
Convention in August. The conflict began when Michigan’s legislature
set the Jan. 15 primary so voters could exercise greater influence over
the selection of the party nominees for the 2008 presidential race, but
Michigan Democrats appear likely to end up with no delegates at all and
thus little clout at the national party convention in Denver.

The rule-making division of the Democratic National Committee (DNC)
recommended on Dec. 1 that the party strip the Michigan Democratic
Party of its 156 delegates because of the state’s non-compliance with
national party rules. The DNC set Feb. 5 as the earliest date states
can schedule their nominating contests [outside of Iowa, New Hampshire,
South Carolina and Nevada.

Republicans in Michigan: No So Easy!

Before I get to the Politisite Political Predictions: Michigan

Here is what others are saying:

 Reuters/CSpan/Zogby

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Republican John McCain holds a slim lead on
rival Mitt Romney in Michigan one day before the state’s hotly
contested presidential nominating contest, according to a
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Monday.

McCain, an Arizona senator who won the New Hampshire primary last
week, narrowly leads Romney 27 percent to 24 percent among likely
Republican voters in Michigan, within the poll’s margin of error of 3.3
percentage points.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor who was raised in Michigan,
is hunting for a breakthrough win in the state on Tuesday to keep his
White House hopes alive after second-place finishes in Iowa and New
Hampshire.

“It’s very close, and it has been close every day that we have
polled,” said pollster John Zogby. The rolling survey of 915 likely
Republican primary voters was taken Friday through Sunday.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won Iowa’s kick-off contest,
was third at 15 percent in Michigan. He was followed by Texas Rep. Ron
Paul at 8 percent, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 6 percent and
former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 5 percent.

Mitchell Research

 

Romney Takes 2% Lead Over McCain

Huckabee Distant Third

Romney 29%, McCain 27%, Huckabee 12%

LANSING, Mich. — Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has taken a
2% lead over U.S. Sen. John McCain according to results of a tracking
poll conducted Thursday, Saturday and Sunday. Romney leads with 29% to
McCain’s 27% with Mike Huckabee at 12%. Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul are
getting 7%, Fred Thompson 4%, and Duncan Hunter 2%, among likely voters
in the Michigan Republican Presidential Primary Election. Six percent
say they will vote “uncommitted” while 5% are undecided.

The telephone tracking poll is being conducted by Mitchell
Interactive. Mitchell Interactive is an East Lansing, Michigan and
Washington, DC based national political polling and market research
company. The survey of 582 likely Republican Presidential Primary
voters was conducted January 10, 12 and 13, 2008. The survey has a
margin of error of +-4.1% at the 95% level of confidence.

“As the undecided voters make up their minds, more are turning to
Mitt Romney than to John McCain. We have also seen the participation
among Republicans increase from 62% last night to 75% at the end of
phoning tonight. That means that 75% of the voters taking part in the
GOP Primary identify themselves as Republicans,” Steve Mitchell,
president of Mitchell Interactive said.

Detroit News

A
Detroit News/WXYZ Action News poll shows McCain with 27 percent, Romney
at 26 percent; and Huckabee at 19 percent. All three campaigned in
Michigan on Saturday. McCain, a senator from Arizona, and Michigan-born
Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, are scheduled to continue
their sprint drive Sunday. Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, is
campaigning in South Carolina on Sunday, but is expected to return to
Michigan on Monday, election eve.

Rasmussen

Election 2008: Michigan Republican Primary

Michigan: Romney 26% McCain 25% Huckabee 17%

The seven day campaign leading up to Michigan’s Republican
Presidential Primary began with a toss-up between Mitt Romney and John
McCain.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found Romney with 26%
of the vote, McCain with 25%, and Mike Huckabee with 17%. The survey
was conducted on Wednesday night, immediately following the New
Hampshire Primary.

 Ok now for the Politisite Political Predictions: Michigan

With the top two candidates within the margin of error, Polls are calling the primary for either Romney or McCain.  Huckabee is coming in third.  I will go with:

McCain at 29%

Romney 27%

Huckabee 16%

Paul 8%

Giuliani 5%

Thompson 5%

Hunter 1%

 

What are YOUR predictions? Put the Pundits to shame.  Post your prediction in the comments. 

I will be providing updates starting at 8 pm Jan 15th.  

Albert N. Milliron

http://www.politisite.com – Politisite

http://politisite.wordpress.com – Politiblog

 

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