Clinton Wins Michigan, 2nd Place goes to Uncommitted! Politisite Political Predictions for the GOP

Clinton Wins  Michigan, Guaranteed! Uncommitted comes in 2nd. The Republicans too close to call.  But I will call it further down the page.

Hilliary Clinton will win the Michigan

primary. I have not doubts.  I will even venture to give you a

percentage, 80% of the vote.  Delete all of your poll sites and

news services.  I am absolutely correct. But Wait, Uncommitted, who didn’t pay the enterance free to get on the ballot, will come in 2nd. 

O.K. I will confess now.  Hilliary Clinton is the only top tier candidate on the Ballot in Michigan.  Two other candidates left thier names on the ballot,  but all of the attention has gone to uncommitted.   All of the other democrats took thier names off the ballot after the Democratic National Committee took away all of the states delegates when Michigan moved its primary date up several weeks to fall between New Hampshire and South Carolina.  Here is a quick statement from the Democratic National Committee.

Michigan delegate update

As we’ve noted, Florida has been stripped of its delegates due its

early primary. Michigan’s situation, however, is a little more

complicated:

As Iowa voters gear up for Thursday’s caucuses, Michigan Democrats

have just a few days to change their scheduled Jan. 15 presidential

primary or lose all their delegates to the Democratic National

Convention in August. The conflict began when Michigan’s legislature

set the Jan. 15 primary so voters could exercise greater influence over

the selection of the party nominees for the 2008 presidential race, but

Michigan Democrats appear likely to end up with no delegates at all and

thus little clout at the national party convention in Denver.

The rule-making division of the Democratic National Committee (DNC)

recommended on Dec. 1 that the party strip the Michigan Democratic

Party of its 156 delegates because of the state’s non-compliance with

national party rules. The DNC set Feb. 5 as the earliest date states

can schedule their nominating contests [outside of Iowa, New Hampshire,

South Carolina and Nevada.

Source: demconwatch.blogspot.com via politisite

Republicans in Michigan: No So Easy!

Before I get to the Politisite Political Predictions: Michigan

Here is what others are saying:

 Reuters/CSpan/Zogby

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Republican John McCain holds a slim lead on

rival Mitt Romney in Michigan one day before the state’s hotly

contested presidential nominating contest, according to a

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Monday.

McCain, an Arizona senator who won the New Hampshire primary last

week, narrowly leads Romney 27 percent to 24 percent among likely

Republican voters in Michigan, within the poll’s margin of error of 3.3

percentage points.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor who was raised in Michigan,

is hunting for a breakthrough win in the state on Tuesday to keep his

White House hopes alive after second-place finishes in Iowa and New

Hampshire.

“It’s very close, and it has been close every day that we have

polled,” said pollster John Zogby. The rolling survey of 915 likely

Republican primary voters was taken Friday through Sunday.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won Iowa’s kick-off contest,

was third at 15 percent in Michigan. He was followed by Texas Rep. Ron

Paul at 8 percent, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 6 percent and

former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 5 percent.

Source: reuters.com via politisite

Mitchell Research

 

Romney Takes 2% Lead Over McCain
Huckabee Distant Third

Romney 29%, McCain 27%, Huckabee 12%

LANSING, Mich. — Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has taken a

2% lead over U.S. Sen. John McCain according to results of a tracking

poll conducted Thursday, Saturday and Sunday. Romney leads with 29% to

McCain’s 27% with Mike Huckabee at 12%. Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul are

getting 7%, Fred Thompson 4%, and Duncan Hunter 2%, among likely voters

in the Michigan Republican Presidential Primary Election. Six percent

say they will vote “uncommitted” while 5% are undecided.

The telephone tracking poll is being conducted by Mitchell

Interactive. Mitchell Interactive is an East Lansing, Michigan and

Washington, DC based national political polling and market research

company. The survey of 582 likely Republican Presidential Primary

voters was conducted January 10, 12 and 13, 2008. The survey has a

margin of error of +-4.1% at the 95% level of confidence.

“As the undecided voters make up their minds, more are turning to

Mitt Romney than to John McCain. We have also seen the participation

among Republicans increase from 62% last night to 75% at the end of

phoning tonight. That means that 75% of the voters taking part in the

GOP Primary identify themselves as Republicans,” Steve Mitchell,

president of Mitchell Interactive said.

Source: realclearpolitics.com via politisite

Detroit News

A

Detroit News/WXYZ Action News poll shows McCain with 27 percent, Romney

at 26 percent; and Huckabee at 19 percent. All three campaigned in

Michigan on Saturday. McCain, a senator from Arizona, and Michigan-born

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, are scheduled to continue

their sprint drive Sunday. Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, is

campaigning in South Carolina on Sunday, but is expected to return to

Michigan on Monday, election eve.

Source: detnews.com via politisite

Rasmussen

Election 2008: Michigan Republican Primary

Michigan: Romney 26% McCain 25% Huckabee 17%

The seven day campaign leading up to Michigan’s Republican

Presidential Primary began with a toss-up between Mitt Romney and John

McCain.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found Romney with 26%

of the vote, McCain with 25%, and Mike Huckabee with 17%. The survey

was conducted on Wednesday night, immediately following the New

Hampshire Primary.

Source: rasmussenreports.com via politisite

 Ok now for the Politisite Political Predictions: Michigan

With the top two candidates within the margin of error, Polls are calling the primary for either Romney or McCain.  Huckabee is coming in third.  I will go with:

McCain at 29%

Romney 27%

Huckabee 16%

Paul 8%

Giuliani 5%

Thompson 5%

Hunter 1%

 

What are YOUR predictions? Put the Pundits to shame.  Post your prediction in the comments. 

I will be providing updates starting at 8 pm Jan 15th.  

Albert N. Milliron

http://www.politisite.com – Politisite

http://politisite.wordpress.com – Politiblog

 

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