South Carolina Politisite Political Predictions, Huckabee by 5% Points

Politisite Predicts Huckabee by 5% Points 


Here is the Race we have had our finger on.  Iron Mill Interactive Media is based in Columbia South Carolina.  Politisite is our political science component.  Without a great deal of analysis, here is our projections for South Carolina. 


Huckabee 32%

McCain  27%

Thompson  19%

Romney  11%

Paul  6%

Giuliani  4%

Hunter 1%


 Here are some of my observations
from the South Carolina Primary

I did want to share that it is raining
and 39 degrees here in Columbia, SC.  The north has sleet and
snow with much lower temperatures.  With, what we call here,
cold temperatures, we can project that the elderly and young will be
less representative in the election.  Many news services have
been projecting low turn out. Politisite took a quick run to the
various voting precincts in the area, the turn out appears to be
medium to high.


Governor Mike Huckabee took his usual
12 miles jog with supporter, South Carolina’s Lt. Governor. 
Huckabee said to reporters that if he can run in the rain, voters
will be able to make it to the voting precinct in there area.

In the Myrtle Beach area, Voting
machines malfunctioned and paper ballots had to be used by voters. 
This is a heavy John McCain area and when the paper ballots ran out
the McCain camp asked the state to leave the presents open a bit
longer to compensate for the voters who could not vote.  This
will probably allow the voting in Myrtle Beach area to continue to
8:00 pm 

I also wanted to show who the movers
and shakers in South Carolina Politics are supporting.  Senator
Lindsy Graham is a McCain Supporter.  Graham the senior senator
supported the failed McCain in the 2000 Election as well.  The
Ultra Conservative Senator Jim DeMint is a major supporter of
Governor Mitt Romney.  Governor Mike Huckabee’s 
endorsements are  Lieutenant
Governor Andre Bauer
, and former Governor David Beasley.  As
you can see, there is a reverse opinion who can better lead our


Here is what others are saying


Voters, candidates come out to polls

By Staff reports – Updates today, results tonight at

Tracy Glantz/
Mike Huckabee and his wife
Janet visit with voters and supporters at the Polo Road Park. Here the
Huckabees talk with Sally Cochran from Anderson, who happened on the
opportunity to meet them. Cochran voted for Huckabee absentee.

Tracy Glantz/

Mike Huckabee and his wife Janet visit with voters and supporters at
the Polo Road Park. Here the Huckabees talk with Sally Cochran from
Anderson, who happened on the opportunity to meet them. Cochran voted
for Huckabee absentee.

  Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee created quite a
scene this morning as he showed up at the Wildewood Precinct at Polo
Road Park in Richland County around 9:30 a.m. He was accompanying his
South Carolina campaign chairman, Mike Campbell, who voted at the

About 30 people, mostly media members, crowded around Huckabee just
outside the entrance to Polo Road Park. The entourage later blocked
traffic as they followed Huckabee across the street, where he greeted
campaign workers holding up signs backing his candidacy.

Standing in the pouring rain, Huckabee praised his supporters.

“Our voters are like the post office,” he said. “They don’t let rain, sleet or snow keep anybody home.”

He joked that voters who support the other candidates should remain safe in their homes away from the cold rain.

The weather today is turning worse: Snow is coming to the Midlands
in late afternoon, but shouldn’t stick to the roads. In the Upstate, 1
to 2 inches of snow is expected this afternoon.

John McCain made an appearance at West Ashley Middle School around
noon, greeting about three dozen supporters for 10 minutes. He is
awaiting results this evening at The Citadel.

Morning voter turnout was low at a couple of the larger Lexington
County precincts, according to poll workers. Both the Lexington 1
precinct at Saxe Gotha Presbyterian Church and Irmo precinct at Irmo
Elementary School are usually Republican bastions with residents
waiting in lines to vote. While the stream of voters into those polling
places Saturday was steady, neither had lines to speak of.

A few voters were surprised to find their polling places closed.
Election officials changed the locations of eight polling places in
Richland County; two in Lexington County were combined, too. Lake
Murray 1 precinct, which used to have its polling place at the Lake
Murray Community Center at 1031 St. Peters Church Road, now is at St.
Peter’s Church, at 1130 St. Peters Church Road.

A Blythewood area voter complained that his voter registration card
had incorrect information about his polling place. Howard Peake had
voted in Blythewood in the past, but the new registration card said his
precinct should vote at Kelly Mill Elementary School at 1141 Kelly Mill

Peake said he spent 30 minutes looking for Kelly Mill Elementary
School. All he could find was Kelly Road Middle School. Finally
stopping there to ask where the elementary school was, he found out he
was supposed to vote at the mid-dle school. “That can be very
misleading for the first time you vote at a new place,” Peake said.

Elsewhere in the sate, a computer programming error caused several
electronic voting machines to not work when the polls opened at 7 a.m.
today for the Republican primary, according to Sandy Martin, Horry
County’s Voters Registration and Election director.

“We’re working on getting it all worked out,” Martin said at 9:15
a.m. “Most of them are up and running now. There are a few scattered
precincts we haven’t got to yet.”

Martin said voters used paper ballots to cast their votes in places at precincts where electronic machines malfunctioned.

First in the South

by Carl Cameron

Turnout is steady in the low country and lighter in the upstate.

South Carolina Republican Party officials expect half a million
votes will be cast provided the weather isn’t too lousy in the upstate.

Both Mike Huckabee and John McCain SHOULD win South Carolina. The latest American Research Group Poll taken 1/17-1/18 shows:

Huckabee 33% McCain 26% Thompson 21% Romney 9% undecided 4%

This is a huge jump for Huckabee who was in second place two days
ago. AND MOST pollsters and state political pros will tell you that
about 1 in 5 are undecided. I’ve found undecideds at both Huckabee and
McCain events without really even trying. The McCain camp said it was
looking at survey data suggesting they were breaking evenly with
Huckabee among undecideds. But its tough for pollsters to catch which
way undecideds break when it happens on the final day. Though I suspect
the gap is not a big as what ARG has pickedup, I think my old pal
pollster Dick Bennett may have found on the phone what is visible on
the ground, Huckabee has buzz and his supporters have more intensity
than McCain.[/q]




Huckabee, McCain in South Carolina dead heat

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

COLUMBIA, South Carolina (Reuters) – Republicans John McCain and Mike Huckabee are in a statistical dead heat as voters head to the polls in South Carolina’s presidential primary, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Saturday.

Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, shaved six points off McCain’s lead in the tracking poll to trail the Arizona senator by just one point, 27 percent to 26 percent, as voting began — well within the 3.4 percent margin of error.

In Nevada, which also holds a presidential nominating contest on Saturday, Democrat Hillary Clinton maintained a stable 6-point lead over rival Barack Obama, 45 percent to 39 percent, with John Edwards well back at 6 percent.

In both states, large pools of undecided or persuadable voters make the outcomes unpredictable. The uncertainty is compounded in Nevada, a relative newcomer to early nominating contests, because it has no real track record on turnout.

“It’s a very close race in Nevada — it’s all about turnout,” said pollster John Zogby. “It’s probably Clinton’s to lose, but how engaged will people be to come out and vote?”

Huckabee, a Baptist minister whose January 3 win in Iowa was fueled by support from evangelicals, has pulled even with McCain in South Carolina by gaining ground among Republicans and conservatives.

McCain still holds healthy leads among independents and Democrats, who do not hold their primary in South Carolina until


Huckabee Push Palmetto State Win




Neither snow nor sleet nor freezing rain will keep South Carolina
Republicans away from the polls; at least that’s what John McCain and
Mike Huckabee are hoping. They are in a statistical dead heat if the
polls can be believed.


Parts of Upstate South Carolina are a freezing sloppy mess. In
Myrtle Beach, those that made it to the polls found the process a
sloppy mess as well. Reports state the electronic voting machines in
Horry County failed so they switched to paper ballots, of which they
ran out. Some claim they were sent away never having cast a vote.


A win in South Carolina would mean solid footing in the nomination
climb for either McCain or Huckabee, giving one of them two important
wins heading into Florida January 29th and the 24 states of Super
Tuesday February 5th.


Many of the media wags are saying the state will be the death knell
for Fred Thompson’s campaign. You wouldn’t know from his schedule, he
spent the day campaigning at a gun show and will party tonight at USC’s
Russell House.


While Mitt Romney is in Columbia tonight, his mind is on Las Vegas.
Romney came out ahead in the Nevada Caucus vote today. Romney got 52%
of votes but the big story out of the west may well be who came second,
Ron Paul scored more votes than John McCain did among caucus goers for
a second place finish in Nevada.


If you’ve been watching WSAV over the past two weeks you’ve seen
just how much Ron Paul spent on advertising in South Carolina so
tonight’s final could be interesting for the dark horse candidate.

American Research Group – South Carolina
Giuliani     3%     
Hunter     1%     
Keyes     1%     
McCain     26%     
Paul     2%     
Romney     9%     


South Carolina Politisite Political Predictions, Huckabee by 5% Points South Carolina Politisite Political Predictions, Huckabee by 5% Points South Carolina Politisite Political Predictions, Huckabee by 5% Points South Carolina Politisite Political Predictions, Huckabee by 5% Points South Carolina Politisite Political Predictions, Huckabee by 5% Points

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  1. Well, I think that immigration was the big issues. All the ads were focusing on that. Exit polls indicate the economy ws the biggest concern. Huckabee, as been one of he few on the trail to speak directly to middle class and poor folks. McCain may get a boost with world events more in the news the last few days. The polls are all over the place. Exit polls are favoring McCain at 7:30pm 1/2 hour after polls are closed. Central exit data is available right now. The north portion of Carolina is not in the mix. Will be later.
    Thanks for your comment. The story you forwarded is excellent and warrants a read.

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