Florida – Politisite Political Projections: Statistical conclusions and a Gut check and What others are saying
Jan 28, 2008 21:00 EST, Jan 29, 2008 02:00 UTC (GMT)
By Albert N. Milliron
(Columbia) -(IMNS)- Florida-Politisite Political Projections for our NowPublic readers. Florida is an interesting animal. It does not really qualify as a southern state, has a large retirement population which are mostly northeastern liberals and moderate Republicans. Snow Birds, you think, maintain their residence in the north. Not true as Florida has some nice perks. There is No state sales tax and Flordia has tax laws that keep a home judgement proof. Most northerners stay for six months and one day to maintain residence there. For all practical purposes, except for the weather, Florida is a part of New England. But wait! Northwest Florida, the panhandle, is conservative to moderate due to larger Christian communities, Conservative colleges, and military in Pensacola, Ft Walton Beach, Marianna, and Tallahassee.
I will look at Florida as I did with South Carolina using trending.
Trends: One or two data points doesn’t make a trend. The trend is your Friend and should always be used in analysis of possible outcomes. Had pollsters considered trending in New Hampshire, they probably would have had the numbers correctly. The problem is that they use data that is a day or two old and they give percentages based on the numbers. Trend lines are not used. Real Clear Politics has trend lines below the polls so one can see how the candidate is moving. You can also use these graphs to gauge where a candidate will be on election day. When I invest in the stock market trend lines are part of what I use. I like momentum. It is very difficult to stop a rolling train. When things are in motion, they will continue to stay in motion unless there is proper resistance. This can be immediate resistance which takes more power (a Major News Story) or gradient resistance which causes things to stop, like a rolling ball.
John McCain: candidate is trending upward from January 7th at 19% points, High Flag since Win in South Carolina to Jan 27 of 31% We expect candidate to remain trending upward to 34% On election day with a margin of error of 3% points.
Mitt Romney: Trending upward from January 7th at 18% points. High Point January 26th at 33%. Expect to trend down 1-3% by election day to 31%
Rudy Giuliani: Trending downward from high of 20% on January 23rd. Trend will continue to 16%
Mike Huckabee: Head and Shoulders Top on Jan 23rd. Trending upward 14%
Ron Paul: Tend up to 6%
McCain 34%, Romney 31%, Giuliani 16%, Huckabee 14%, Paul 6%
That was my statistical conclusion. Here is what my gut is telling me. I think there is a large section of voters being under polled. Many folks are transient residents and are not listed in directories or those who support candiates that live in the south have northern checking accounts and are not being polled. I think Giuliani and Romney will do better than the polls say.
My gut tells me to throw out the statisics and say this: Romney, Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee, and Paul
Margin of Error is +/- A New York Strip Steak, a Slice of Boston Cream Pie, and a glass of orange Juice
Here is what others are saying:
Pollster.com: Has it Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee. They use the momentum model with Trend Lines
The polls in Florida point to a very close contest between Mitt Romney and John McCain. As of Monday’s polling used here (there will be new final polls available Tuesday morning) Romney has a small lead based on our trend estimators (both standard and sensitive). But that lead is so small that a “dead heat” is probably still a good characterization of the race.
As we’ve seen in several previous states, the final vote has often broken strongly in favor of the winner with little going to the second place finisher. But who will that winner be? Other than our trend estimates, the data have little more to tell us on that score. With Ron Paul polling consistently at between 4 and 5 points, there are at least 10% of voters yet to make up their minds. A strong surge could boost one of these front-runners from about 30% to near 40% and a very significant win. An even split of undecideds will make for a close finish with both around 33-35%.
Both Romney and McCain have been gaining ground in Florida, but Romney’s rise has been consistently sharper than McCain’s. Moreover, there is little evidence that McCain has enjoyed a post-South Carolina spurt in Florida. Nor does Romney’s Nevada win seem to have helped him beyond his already considerable upward trend.
As the Florida race narrowed to a two way contest for first place, Giuliani and Huckabee have subsided into the 12-15 percent range. They too could go either way for 3rd and 4th, though at the moment Giuliani has a small advantage for third place. As mentioned above, Ron Paul trails with 4-5% for fifth place.
Reuters: McCain, Romney. Giuliani
McCain takes narrow lead in Florida 1:00am ET
John McCain has a three point lead over Mitt Romney ahead of the Jan. 29 Florida Republican primary according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll. Former national Republican front-runner Rudy Giuliani has regained a distant third place over Mike Huckabee. Full Article
Strategic Vision Political
Below are the poll results based on telephone interviews with 600 likely Republican primary voters and 600 likely Democratic primary voters in Florida, aged 18+, and conducted January 25-27, 2008. The margin of sampling error is ±4.5 percentage points.
1. Who is your first choice for the Republican nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
John McCain 27%
Mitt Romney 26%
Rudy Giuliani 17%
Mike Huckabee 15%
Ron Paul 5%
2. What is the most important issue to individually when making a selection for President? (Republicans only)
The war in Iraq 19%
Jobs and the Economy 18%
The war on terror 11%
Rassmussen, my favorite pollster Ha it too close to call Between McCain and Romney with Giuliani Third
For most of the past week, John McCain was slightly behind Mitt Romney in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. Then, on Saturday, the Arizona Senator switched the subject of the campaign to his comfort zone–national security issues. Saturday night, the Arizona Senator got another bit of good news—an endorsement by popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist.
Polling on Sunday showed that McCain picked up four percentage points from the day before. Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani lost two points each and Mike Huckabee also slipped a point. As a result, it’s all tied heading into the final full day of campaigning before Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows McCain and Romney tied at 31%, Giuliani is a distant third at 16% and Huckabee is in fourth place at 11%. The number of persuadable voters is also dwindling. Only 2% are undecided and just 6% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Seventy-nine percent (79%) of McCain’s voters have already voted or are certain they will vote for him. That number is identical for Romney voters. Just 5% of McCain voters and 7% of Romney voters say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
The election may be decided by the number of Giuliani and Huckabee supporters who decide to abandon their first choice in hopes of influencing the outcome. Many may have already done so. On Saturday, 15% of Giuliani supporters said there was a good chance they could change their mind. Just 7% of the remaining Giuliani voters said the same on Sunday.
Fifty-two percent (52%) of Florida’s Republican Primary Voters say that it’s more important to select a President who can handle national security issues than one who can handle economic issues. Thirty-five percent (35%) take the opposite view.
Voters have this preference for national security credentials despite the fact that 43% name the economy as the top voting issue. Just 28% name either the War in Iraq or national security as the top issue. One reason may be that Republican voters in Florida generally believe that the best thing the government can do to help the economy is to get out of the way. In terms of stimulating the economy, 47% say cutting government spending is the best policy. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say cutting taxes is most important.
It is hard to overstate the impact of Florida’s Republican Primary. While it is highly likely that both McCain and Romney will continue regardless of the outcome, a win for McCain would make him the heavy favorite for the nomination. He already leads or is tied for the lead in several Super Tuesday states including in California, New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Alabama.
On the other hand, a victory for Romney could give Romney a bounce for Super Tuesday and set the stage for a long, drawn-out competition.
Nationally, in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, McCain and Romney have begun to pull away from the rest of the field. The economy is seen as the top voting issue for all voters nationwide.
Among Florida Democrats, Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead.
National Polls from Gallup: McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Giuliani, The leader has changed 3 times Giuliani, Huckabee, now McCain
Democrats National : Clinton trending down, Obama Level, Edwards trending Up
The Republican race appears to be tightening. John McCain’s lead over Mitt Romney is now only 8 points, from a recent high of 14 points in polling conducted early last week. Mike Huckabee remains slightly behind Romney, while Rudy Giuliani is in fourth place with 13% of the Republican national vote. The results of Tuesday’s Florida primary could have a significant effect on the standing of the GOP candidates nationally. — Frank Newport
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