Super Tuesday Exit Polls: Right Here

Super Tuesday Exit Polls: Right Here

10:03 pm –  

WASHINGTON (AP) – Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton was strongly supported by Hispanics and people seeking an experienced candidate, but Barack Obama was eating into her usual dominance of women and whites, in early national exit polls Tuesday. A coalition of black, young, white and higher-income voters were flocking to Obama.

On the Republican side, preliminary data from exit polls of voters in 16 states showed Sen. John McCain getting strong support from moderates and people valuing experience and leadership. He and Mitt Romney were battling for an edge among party regulars, while Romney was getting strong backing from the GOP’s most conservative voters and people wanting a strong stance against illegal immigrants.

Obama, an Illinois senator, was getting support from more than four in 10 women and about the same number of whites, leaving him just a few percentage points behind Clinton. That was a narrower deficit than he has faced in most states that have held nominating contests so far, with part of his strength coming from people under age 44, whom he was dominating.

In Oklahoma, a state Clinton won overall, there was no gender gap for her; she won among men and women. McCain won in New Jersey and Connecticut, where nearly half the voters were moderates and liberals who strongly support him. He also won in Illinois, a state dominated by conservative GOP voters, in part because Huckabee and Romney split most of the conservative vote, while the three rivals shared support from evangelicals.

Nationally, Obama was getting the backing of eight in 10 blacks, his usual margin. But Clinton, a New York senator, was countering with strong support from Hispanics, about six in 10 of whom were supporting her. Much of that strength came from Hispanic women and from the oldest Latino voters.

Obama was leading with liberals and had a modest advantage among white men, a group from which he has seldom received strong backing. Former Sen. John Edwards’ decision to leave the race last week may have helped Obama with those voters.

Clinton had a clear lead with white women, with older white and Hispanic voters, and with lower educated people.

About half of Democrats across the country said they want a candidate who will change things. As usual Obama was that group’s overwhelming favorite, getting about seven in 10 of their votes. About one-fourth preferred experience, and Clinton was garnering virtually all of their votes.

Half of Democrats also named the economy as the country’s top issue. Of that group, Clinton was favored slightly. She also led with those citing health care, while Obama had an advantage with people most concerned about the war in Iraq.

The top issue for Republicans also was the economy, with four in 10 naming it. Those voters favored McCain, as did those citing Iraq and terrorism. Romney’s advantage came with the one quarter who said illegal immigration was their No. 1 concern.

But on the economy, the message from GOP voters was mixed. On a separate question, Romney was cited as the candidate most trusted to manage the economy.

McCain, the Arizona senator, and Romney each had the support of nearly four in 10 people calling themselves Republicans. McCain has yet to win that group of voters in any GOP contest this year, though he has tied for the lead among them before. He led among independents – a consistent McCain strength – though Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, was not far behind.

McCain had more than a 2-to-1 edge over Romney among GOP moderates. Romney was compensating by getting about half the votes of people calling themselves very conservative, twice the number backing Huckabee. McCain had about one-fifth of those votes.

Those preferring a candidate with strong leadership over agreement on the issues, and looking for experience, were tilting strongly toward McCain. But nearly half of Republicans were looking for a candidate who shares their values. Romney led with that group.

Romney also had four in 10 votes from Republicans who want to deport illegal aliens, for a clear lead over McCain.

Huckabee, who has trailed McCain and Romney overall in recent national polls, had one-third of the votes of white, born-again and evangelical Christians, giving him a slight lead in that category over his rivals.

The preliminary results came from exit polling by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International conducted for The Associated Press and television networks. The partial samples came from more than 400 precincts across 16 states with primaries on Tuesday.

Included were interviews with 10,926 Democratic primary voters and 7,087 GOP voters. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 1 percentage point for Democrats and 2 points for Republicans.

7:50 pm 

ALABAMA (Dems: 52; GOP: 45)

Huckabee working hard to defeat McCain. Large black population makes this fertile territory for Obama. Polls close at 7 p.m.

ALASKA (caucuses; Dems: 13; GOP: 26)

Romney making an effort. State tilts toward Obama. Polls close at 1 a.m.

ARIZONA (Dems: 56; GOP: 53 WTA)

McCain poised to capture all 53 delegates in a home-state primary. Hispanic voters are key. They have favored Clinton in early contests, but Obama dispatched Sen. Edward M. Kennedy to help. Polls close at 8 p.m.

ARKANSAS (Dems: 35; GOP: 31)

Huckabee’s home state. Clinton was first lady of the state for a dozen years. Polls close at 7:30 p.m.

CALIFORNIA (Dems: 370; GOP: 170)

McCain counting on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s help in the state with the largest haul of delegates. Clinton has led in the polls for months. The Hispanic vote is critical. Polls close at 10 p.m. OTHER DECISIONS: A San Francisco initiative seeks to turn Alcatraz Island into a Global Peace Center, but the vote is purely symbolic. A statewide referendum would repeal four agreements Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger struck with casino-operating Indian tribes.

COLORADO (caucuses; Dems: 55; GOP: 43)

Romney making a play. Edge for Obama. Polls close at 11 p.m.

CONNECTICUT (Dems: 48; GOP: 27 WTA)

McCain favored in winner-take-all primary. Democratic battleground. Sen. Chris Dodd, an early presidential race casualty, has not endorsed. Polls close at 7 p.m.

DELAWARE (Dems: 15; GOP: 18 WTA)

McCain favored in winner-take all primary. Democratic toss-up. Polls close at 7 p.m.

GEORGIA (Dems: 87; GOP: 72)

Obama benefits from a large black population for win, based on exit poll data. GOP to be decided

PRECINCTS REPORTING:

DEMOCRATS

Clinton:

Obama:

REPUBLICANS

Huckabee:

McCain:

Paul:

Romney:

IDAHO: (Democratic caucuses: 18)

Obama favored. Polls close at 11 p.m.

ILLINOIS (Dems: 153; GOP: 57)

Favors McCain. Delegate names are on the ballot. Obama’s home state. Polls close at 7 p.m.

OTHER DECISIONS: GOP voters nominate candidates to replace Rep. Dennis Hastert and the retiring Rep. Jerry Weller. Democrat Rep. Dan Lipinski tries to fight off three challengers.

KANSAS (Democratic caucuses only 32)

Obama favored. Polls close at 7 p.m.

MASSACHUSETTS (Dems: 93; GOP: 40)

Romney’s base awards delegates proportionally. Obama hopes support from Gov. Deval Patrick and Sen. Edward Kennedy can overcome Clinton’s longtime lead. Polls close at 8 p.m.

MINNESOTA (caucuses; Dems: 72; GOP: 38)

McCain has support of Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Sen. Norm Coleman. Obama hopes for a caucus victory. Polls close at 8 p.m.

MISSOURI (Dems: 72; GOP: 58 WTA)

HEADLINE: Most competitive three-way Republican race of the night. A Clinton-Obama tossup. Polls close at 7 p.m.

MONTANA (GOP caucus: 25 WTA)

Romney tries for another western triumph after Nevada and Wyoming, this one winner-take-all. Polls close at 11 p.m.

NEW JERSEY (Dems: 107; GOP: 52 WTA)

Winner-take-all state should be McCain’s. New Yorker Clinton’s next-door neighbors. Polls close at 7 p.m.

NEW MEXICO (Democratic caucuses: 26)

An early dropout, Gov. Bill Richardson has yet to endorse. Another Hispanic test for Obama. Polls close at 8 p.m.

NEW YORK (Dems: 232; GOP: 101 WTA)

McCain’s, with the help of Rudy Giuliani and large numbers of moderate Republicans. Clinton’s home state. Obama hopes to win his share of delegates. Polls close at 8 p.m.

NORTH DAKOTA (caucuses; Dems: 13; GOP: 23)

Romney made late effort. Obama favored, with the support of Sen. Kent Conrad. Polls close at 10 p.m.

OKLAHOMA (Dems: 38; GOP:38)

Three-way Republican tossup for McCain, Romney and Huckabee. Clinton territory. Polls close at 7 p.m.

TENNESSEE (Dems: 68; GOP:52)

McCain, Romney and Huckabee all making an effort. Favors Clinton. Polls close at 7 p.m.

UTAH (Dems: 23; GOP: 36 WTA)

Heavy Mormon population makes it Romney’s. Democratic tossup. Polls close at 9 p.m.

WEST VIRGINIA (GOP state convention: 18 WTA)

Huckabee wins all 18 delegates as backers of John McCain threw him their support to prevent Mitt Romney from capturing the winner-take-all GOP state convention vote.

PRECINCTS REPORTING: 100 percent

REPUBLICANS

Huckabee: 567 – 51.5 percent (18)

Romney: 521 – 47.4 percent

McCain: 12 – 1 percent

7:00pm  We will be reporting exit polling from network consortium in the next few minutes

Politisite:  What we are seeing in early exit polls is that the arguing between McCain and Romney has helped Huckabee as it did in Iowa.  Looks like Huckabee will win much more in the south than just his home state of Arkansas. Pollsters are relating a high turnout by evangelicals 79% f which are voting Huckabee. Now I am not so sure if pollsters the the differance between an evangelical and a Moderate Christian but self reports are strong Huckabee support in the south.

On the Democratic side:  Obama has been in an upward trend and is catching additional votes.  Obama will do much better than polling data.  We have Obama in a clear win in Georgia.  The Exit polls relate a much better outcome.  According to some polls, Obama has been helped by Endorsements especially in California

Looking for leaked Exit Polling data?  Not this year says top officals of the network consortium that had problems with containing data in 2004.  The word is the pollsters have been locked in a room until 7:00 pm tonight.  We will over the exit polls at the same time they are released to the networks, Sorry.  So check back here on NowPublic and Politisite after 7 pm for the firs words on the net.  In the mean time you can review our projections released late last night on the projected results of the election.  See our article on NowPublic at Super Tuesday: Politisite Political Projections. Also check out these articles of our Coverage of Super Tuesday: Super Tuesday: First Election Results from West Virginia Because the Super Tuesday News is NowPublic.

What are Exit Polls?

An exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks who the voter plans to vote for or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks who the voter actually voted for. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take hours or even days to count.

 The Campaign Spot on National Review Online

The Great Big Early Exit Poll Report

I just got a big pile of exit poll data.

The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent.

Fascinating and fun as it is, I remind my readers that this doesn’t tell us that much, as we don’t know what the district-by-district breakdown is. Also, there are three million absentee votes that I’m pretty sure are not included in this. So while these numbers are nice to hear for McCain fans, I take them with even more caution, skepticism and grains of salt than usual.

Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent.

Winner take all. If these numbers hold – and these are early voters, the later waves may change the final a bit — it’s a big, big win for Romney.

Georgia: Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent.

Now on to the NYC-metro-area states:

New York: McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent.

New Jersey: McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent.

Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent.

More or less what we expected.

Now the big Mitt states:

The early wave in Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent.

I think I’m ready to call that one.

Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35.

But in McCain’s home state…

Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8.

That’s a heck of a lot closer than I had expected.

On to the South, where the numbers at this point look good for Huckabee…

Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent.

Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23.

Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19.

Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27.

A barnburner!

Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18.

Not a big state, but it’s winner take all, so I’m sure Team Romney would take it.

Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15.

Since we do not have the Network Consortium data leaked.  Lets give you Politisite Projected Winners.

 Arizona – McCain Wins

Arkansas – Huckabee Wins , Clinton Wins

Georgia – Obama Wins

Tennessee – Clinton Wins

New York – Clinton Wins. McCain Wins

Edison Research Exit Poll Data just in 

Early Feb. 5 Exit Poll Highlights

Early Feb. 5 Exit Poll Highlights

Highlights from preliminary results of exit polling in the Super Tuesday primary states for The Associated Press and television networks:

RACE AND GENDER

In the Democratic races, Barack Obama led among black voters and Hillary Rodham Clinton led among Hispanic voters. Obama led among white men, while Clinton led among white women. Overall, Obama led among men and Clinton led among women, although her advantage among women appeared smaller than was seen in early primary states. In the Republican races, John McCain led among men. He had only a small lead over Romney among women.

CONSERVATIVES AND MODERATES

John McCain led among Republicans who call themselves moderates, while Romney led among Republicans who call themselves conservatives. McCain had a small lead among Republicans and a large advantage among independents voting in the Republican primaries.

DECISIONS, DECISIONS

About one in 10 voters in each party said they decided whom to vote for on Tuesday. Slightly more said they decided in the last three days. About half of Democratic primary voters and a third of Republicans said they made up their minds more than a month ago.

ECONOMIC WORRIES

Voters in both parties most frequently picked the economy as the most important issue facing the country. Given three choices, half of Democratic primary voters picked the economy, three in 10 said the war in Iraq and the remaining two in 10 said health care. Republican primary voters had four choices for that question and four in 10 picked the economy; two in 10 picked immigration and the war in Iraq and somewhat fewer said terrorism.

Looking for Super Tuesday Exit Polls?

Looking for leaked exit poll results from the Super Tuesday states? As regular readers know, the leaks of exit poll we experienced in 2004 and prior years have been stopped, as the the network consortium that conducts the exit polls now restricts access to a small number of analysts in a “quarantine room” for most of the day and did not release the results to the networks and subscriber news organizations until 5:00 p.m. eastern time. While some of that information will leak a leak, that process will remain in place today (Tom Webster, an employee of Edison Research, has blogged some details about life inside the quarantine room).

What this means (and those of you who play the various election “futures” or predictions markets should listen closely) is that any “exit poll” numbers you hear about before 5:00 p.m. are bogus (or at least, not produced by the networks).

Here are a few tips for making sense of the exit poll data you will see tonight (a slightly edited version of tips I posted on the morning of the New Hampshire primary, with a few edits):

1) An exit poll is just a survey. Like other surveys, it is subject to random sampling error and, as those who follow exit polls now understand, occasional problems with non-response bias. In New Hampshire (in 1992) and Arizona (in 1996)* primary election exit polls overstated support for Patrick Buchanan, probably because his more enthusiastic supporters were more willing to be interviewed (and for those tempted to hit he comment button, yes, I know that some believe those past errors suggest massive vote fraud — I have written about that subject at great length).

2) The networks rarely “call” an election on exit poll results alone. The decision desk analysts require a very high degree of statistical confidence (at least 99.5%) before they will consider calling a winner (the ordinary “margin of error” on pre-election polls typically uses a 95% confidence level). They will also wait for actual results if the exit poll is very different from pre-election poll trends. So a single-digit margin on an exit poll is almost never sufficient to say that a particular candidate will win.

3) Watch out for “The Composite.” As they have for the earlier primaries, we expect the web sites of CNN, MSNBC and CBS to post exit poll tabulations shortly after the polls close that will update as the election night wears on (we will post links and commentary here, so we hope you’ll plan to check back in later tonight). Those data are weighted to whatever estimate of the outcome the analysts have greatest confidence in at any moment. By the end of the night, the tabulations will be weighted to the official count. Typically, the first waves of exit poll tabulations (including most that leak before the polls close) are weighted to something called the “Composite Estimate,” a combination of the exit poll data alone and a “Prior Estimate” that is based largely on pre-election poll results. So if you look to extrapolate from the initial tabulations posted on MSNBC or CNN (as we have done here at Pollster each primary night this year), just keep in mind that in the estimate of each candidate’s standing in the initial reports will likely mix exit poll and the pre-election poll estimates (not unlike the kind we report here).

Finally, if you would like more information on how exit polls are conducted, you may want to revisit a Mystery Pollster classic: Exit Polls – What You Should Know. Happy Super Tuesday!

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