Politisite Political Projections: Ohio

Ohio Polls 

Super Tuesday Too Ohio

Politisite Political Projections

By Albert N. Milliron,
Chief Political Corespondent
Iron Mill Interactive Media, Inc / Politisite.com
Web Posted March 1, 2008 7:00 pm. EST, 0000 UTC
Outlook:

  1. Recent polling
    1. Recent Polling has indicated an up trend in Barack Obama’s polling numbers with 1 in the 4 polls reported March 1st giving him a 2 percentage point lead . Hilliary Clinton had a 20+ percentage spread just after super Tuesday. Her lead has dwindled to into the single digits eroding a clear win to within the margin of error. Ohio is more female and whiter than the US Average. There is also a significant number of 65+ voters as well as a slightly below average African-American Population. These demographics favor Hilliary Clinton. With all of Obama’s key demographics leaning toward Clinton he is having a difficult time here. The percentage spreads on the 28th were 4 ½ % . Today’s polls show a widening to 6 ½ % moving back in Hilliary’s direction.
  2. Evans-Novak
    1. Evans and Novak is reporting that the best indicter that Hilliary Clinton’s distress is that insiders are bad mouthing her as a very poor candidate. Giving a clear indication that her candidacy is dead.
  3. Cleveland Debate
    1. Obama pointed out that in the debate that if Hilliary was taking credit for all of the Clinton Years success, she will have to take credit for the Failures pointing to NAFTA as a failure to Ohio. Clinton also made a point that, “I always gets the first question in the debates, she doesn’t mind fielding them, but I always seem to get the first question”. Most of the commentary on the blogs and news was that she appeared un-presidential. How will Clinton Administration deal with a negative press when making decisions as president?
  4. NAFTA
    1. Ohio was hit very hard, loosing 400 thousand jobs, due to NAFTA. Obama is pointing out that NAFTA was a Clinton endorsed program and Hilliary has taken credit for most of the, “Clinton Years” success.
  5. Tony Rezko
    1. Antoin “Tony” Rezko is in the news negativity affecting Senator Obama. Jury selection is on going in the Chicago businessman’s political corruption trial. Obama is receiving more questions from media leading up to Tuesdays election. Rezko, a land developer, gave the Obama campaign more than $150,000. Obama told reporters that he has given most of the money in Rezko-related contributions to charity. Obama stated to reporters that, he made a mistake” questioning Obama’s judgment.
  6. Saturday Night Live Appearance.
    1. Hilliary Clinton’s appearance on NBC’s Saturday Night Live has shown Hillary’s, “Other side” where she appeared with the actress who plays her. While we are beginning to see a multiple personality syndrome with Hilliary, the appearance will positively help her in Tuesday.

Obama: February 11th was 21% points behind. Began trending upward to within 2 points of the lead. Is now trending downward to 7 points off the lead. One poll, Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby has Obama winning by 2 % Points.
Clinton: From February 12th 21% ahead. Began trending downward to February 21st to 8% Points ahead. Uptrend for one tracking poll day. Continued down trend to February 28 2% point lead.
Conclusion:
Clinton: Wins with 52% points
Obama: Loses at 48% Points

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