Unlikely Romney will win Nevada – early voting Democrats have 50K lead

UPDATE: Statewide totals in. 700,000-plus have voted already. Doubt more than 1 million in all will vote. Democrats have a 48,000-vote lead.

A remarkable effort on the last day of early voting in Clark County by the Democrats pushed their lead above the 70,000 mark while another close day in Washoe left that county essentially even.

I will dive deeper into the numbers for premium subscribers Sunday, but bottom line: The credible polls on both sides would have to be wrong — i.e. Romney would have to win independents by a large margin — for him to win Nevada.

This is why registration matters, folks. That 90,000-voter lead for the Democrats could save them from a devastated economy and the president’s negatives. Team Romney’s spin has been that GOP turnout is up from ’08 (it is, but that was a wave election and McCain didn’t do anything here) and Democrats need an 80,000 lead in Clark after early voting (crazy metric).

The Republicans are counting on 90 percent GOP turnout and a decisive indie win — that’s their only chance, and the smart ones know it. Not impossible, but unlikely.

I’ll publish my official prediction tomorrow.

To the numbers:

First, Clark, with mail and early vote:

Democrats — 229,855, or 47.7 percent

Republicans — 159,115, 33.0 percent

Others — 92,717, or 19.3 percent

Read the full story at Ralston Reports.

About Albert N. Milliron 6991 Articles
Albert Milliron is the founder of Politisite. Milliron has been credentialed by most major news networks for Presidential debates and major Political Parties for political event coverage. Albert maintains relationships with the White House and State Department to provide direct reporting from the Administration’s Press team. Albert is the former Public Relations Chairman of the Columbia County Republican Party in Georgia. He is a former Delegate. Milliron is a veteran of the US Army Medical Department and worked for Department of Veterans Affairs, Department of Psychiatry.

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