Yes Dick, You indeed have egg on your face. Pundits and political strategists told their followers exactly what they wanted to hear. So what did it accomplish? Many folks thinking the election was in the bag, stayed home to avoid the long lines and cold to watch the election unfold in their easy chairs.
We took a different approach. Our Politisite Political Projections forecast was an Obama win. We thought it most appropriate to share with our readers where we thought the election actually was. By doing so, we believed that the Republicans and independents in the electorate wouldn’t take the election for granted and would get to the polls and vote.
So while people chose to listen to what their desired outcome was, they failed to heed the calls of those who projected the election accurately.
We are hopeful that this election will be a time of reevaluation from listening to pundits who tell their viewers what they want to hear, to considering the opinion of those who tell viewers and readers what they need to hear.
Morris explains the reason he was wrong…. Again
I’ve got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.
The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen.These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.
In 2012, 13% of the vote was cast by blacks. In 04, it was 11%. This year, 10% was Latino. In ’04 it was 8%. This time, 19% was cast by voters under 30 years of age. In ’04 it was 17%. Taken together, these results swelled the ranks of Obama’s three-tiered base by five to six points, accounting fully for his victory.
I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did.
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