Politisite Political Projections for the 2020 Iowa Caucuses Democratic Presidential Nomination.
Political polling predictions is where the Pollsters and Pundits make the real money. If you get it right, you’re a hero and on every cable channel in America. If not you are pushed to the side like yesterdays news. This is the nature of political projections.
PolitiSite uses a momentum modality that is often used with investment instruments like stocks. Prices fluctuate depending on the stock being in or out of favor depending on analysts recommendations and the general influx and outflow of money toward a stock. Presidential candidates are quite the same in this regard as political pundits talk up or down a candidate providing name recognition and the electorate finances a candidate and comments about them via social media and the like further advancing enhancing their ‘stock’. Below is a summary of our modality:
Trends: One or two data points doesn’t make a trend as the saying goes. The ‘trend is your friend’ and should always be used in analysis of possible outcomes. Had pollsters considered trending in the 2016 election, they probably would have had the numbers correctly. The problem is that they use data that is a days and they give percentages based on those numbers.
Trend lines are not used. Real Clear Politics has trend lines below the polls so one can see how the candidate is moving. You can also use their graphs to gauge where a candidate may be on election day. When one invests in the stock market, trend lines are part of what are often used. We like momentum. It is very difficult to stop a rolling train. When things are in motion, they will continue to stay in motion unless there is proper resistance. This can be immediate resistance which takes more power (a Major News Story) or gradient resistance which causes things to stop, like a rolling ball.
We use major national pollsters who have been accurate in the most recent elections and those who have been reasonably accurate in the last three election cycles. For state polls, we use the most recognized polls for that state, in Iowa, we use the Des Moines Register for example. We take all of the polling available and throw out the high and low outliers and come up with our Politisite Polling Average. We then look at the data-points we have outlined and make a projection of where the candidate will be on election day. Of course we also have a special sauce we apply to our projection. Its a little secret that every poll aggregator prognosticator keeps locked up in their office safe, not unlike KFCs 11 secret herbs and spices.
The Iowa Caucuses are a bit unusual compared to a regular state primary. So, although we have been pretty accurate the last three election cycles (we projected Iowa perfectly in 2016,) Iowa is a bit difficult to predict accurately compared to Primary states say like New Hampshire or South Carolina
So, having explained how we do things a bit (without giving away our ‘special sauce’) let us give you the Iowa Caucus February 3, 2020 PolitiSite Political Projection
Who Will Win Iowa Caucus 2020 PolitiSite Political Projection:
- Bernie Sanders
- Joe Biden
- Pete Buttigieg
- Elizabeth Warren
- Amy Klobuchar
- Andrew Yang
- Tom Steyer
- Tulsi Gabbard
- * Mike Bloomberg
* Note: Micheal Bloomberg entered the Democratic Presidential race late and stated that he is skipping Iowa and New Hampshire. We have rated him last as a result.
So, there you have it. We await the Iowa Caucus results tonight and solicit your feedback via Twitter @PolitiSite