Politisite Political Projections for the 2020 Nevada Caucuses for the Democratic Presidential Nomination.
Anyone who has followed PolitiSite Political Projections over the past three election cycles has become familiar with our Polling Prognostication model. In a nutshell, Politisite Political Projections consists of determining a candidates momentum going into election or caucus day using polling analysis similar to how one may project relative price strength compared to a specific sector of stocks.
You can learn more about our modality in our previous articles: ‘Who Will Win the Iowa Caucuses in 2020‘ and ‘The New Hampshire 2020 Primary Winners and Losers‘. This explains our assumptions and shows our accuracy in the last two elections.
Before and After the Nevada Democratic Debate
Some polling analysis looks at the exact same poll taken shortly before a nationally televised debate and after. Following the debate pollsters who do this use the same polling questions and structure and do the poll as closely after the debate as possible. These polls are able to show if a candidate has received a ‘bump‘ that could give further evidence that a candidate is surging or declining in momentum going into election day.
A Democratic Pollster: Data for Progress did one such poll that provided data for four of the candidates on the debate stage. Their numbers had Bernie Sanders at 35% pre-debate and 32% post-debate down 3 points. Joe Biden stood at 14% both pre and post debate. Buttigieg 15% in pre and post debate. Elizabeth Warren received a 1 point bump following the debate where she stood at 17%. Based on Data for Progress numbers Sanders lost momentum but Warren gained momentum following their performance on the debate stage.
How are the Democratic Candidates Trending before the Nevada Caucuses?
Based on New Hampshire Election Results our PolitiSite Political Projections proved nearly as accurate as our Iowa Caucus Result projections, even though Caucuses have historically been more difficult to predict. In Iowa, voter turnout was lower than expected giving us an indication of lower enthusiasm for the Democratic Field this election cycle.
When Joe Biden came in fourth place instead of the projected second position, we looked more closely at his potential in future contests. That analysis proved wise as we adjusted Biden’s position to reflect lower than polls were projecting. As the New Hampshire Primary results came in, Politisite’s positioning Joe Biden in fifth place and moving Amy Klobuchar to third ahead of Elizabeth Warren proved to be accurate.
Politisite was one of the few election predictors who placed Biden in fifth and Amy Klobuchar in third place. Making us among the most accurate in the country.
So how is the Democratic Candidate Fields momentum going into Caucus Day on February 22, 2020?
Good Question! Our Projection model looks at momentum in percentage points. Our conclusion at the end of the article will rank order the candidates from first to last based on where we think the positive or negative momentum will place them on election day, NOT on the day the polls were taken.
So going into the Nevada Caucuses, Sanders is trending up 11 percentage points showing strong upward momentum. Conversely, Biden has lost 9.5 percentage points with continued strong downward pressure. Buttigieg up 9.5 points, Warren down 5 points but momentum is in reversal toward the positive. Klobuchar gained 10 percentage points over the course of the last two months but is in strong reversal after what seemed to be a poor performance on the debate stage.
Turning to the lower tier candidates: Steyer has gained 7 points of momentum due to heavy advertising although he but did not meet the criteria set by the Democratic National Convention (DNC) to make appear in the Nevada debate. Tulsi Gabbard who also didn’t make the debate cut stands with no momentum.
It should be noted here that we have no data for Mike Bloomberg who was given a position on the debate stage, even though he is not competing in Nevada, after the DNC changed the debate inclusion criteria. We will say that his inclusion in the Nevada debate didn’t help him much as he had a poor performance by most nonpartisan pollsters who did pre/post debate polling analysis. We expect that his debate performance will be reflected in Super Tuesday Polls going forward.
So, having explained how we do things a bit, lets give you the Nevada Caucus PolitiSite Political Projections for 2020. Keep in mind, as we stated earlier, Caucuses are much more difficult to call than are Primary Elections. Third, fourth and fifth place ranking could go any way between Warren, Biden and Klobuchar although we are somewhat confident in how we rank ordered the candidates.
The Nevada Caucus 2020 Results before they Happen
- Bernie Sanders Win by at least 20 Percentage Points
- Pete Buttigieg
- Elizabeth Warren
- Joe Biden
- Amy Klobuchar (will come in lower than the expected 10.5%)
- Tom Steyer
- Tulsi Gabbard
- Micheal Bloomberg
- Note: Micheal Bloomberg entered the Democratic Presidential race late and stated that he is skipping the Nevada Caucuses. We have rated him last as a result.
So, there you have it. We await the Nevada Caucus results and solicit your feedback via Twitter @PolitiSite