Super Tuesday 2020 Political Projections

Five candidates made it past the first four political contests for the Democratic Nomination.  Election prognosticators had it relatively easy as they had only one state to evaluate, Super Tuesday presents a much greater challenge because, fourteen states and one U.S. territory hold their elections on a single day, making polling analysis a bit more complicated.

First, there are much fewer polls available for each of the contests.  In South Carolina there were no less than twelve polls in the last week before the primary that provided lots of information to look over.  For us, South Carolina was a relatively easy contest to predict.  We have been watching South Carolina for the last six (6) election cycles.  Our offices are in the State. And it is the state where we go to debates and actually rub elbows with the candidates and their surrogates.

Our momentum model contains not just polling analysis, but also positive or negative comments on mainstream media outlets, endorsements, social media mentions and the inflow of contributions to candidates to determine a candidates positive or negative momentum going into election day. This is how we determine where a candidate will perform on election day not the day the poll was taken.

In South Carolina for instance, we looked at pre/post debate polling to see if the debate gave them a positive or negative bump and high level endorsements like Joe Biden scoring House Majority Whip Jim Clyburns nod just days before the election.  Biden took a  pretty big hit following New Hampshire and was dropping like a rock in the polls.  Just a week before the South Carolina Primary, Biden was only leading Sanders by four (4) percentage points.  While he didn’t have his best debate performance in Charleston of Tuesday, it didn’t hurt him. The biggest bump in the polls came after Clyburn endorsed Biden and his polling numbers began to rise substantially.  The day before the election, the last two polls had Biden besting Sanders by sixteen (16) and twenty-one (21) percent.  We decided to be conservative and predict a Biden win with at least ten (10) percentage points.  Biden outperformed nearly every poll with 29.5 point lead above Sanders.

Politisite also noted two other momentum changes.  We noticed that Steyer was going to under perform and Buttigieg was surging so we thought that Buttigieg could potentially beat Steyer and take second place.  Steyer did under perform as expected but Buttigieg also under performed and took fourth place.  We also saw Klobuchar under performing the polls based on what we saw on the ground in South Carolina and predicted her coming in sixth (6th) with less than four (4) percent.

Now, lets move to Super Tuesday Projections

Late, Sunday night Pete Buttigieg pulled out of the race for the Democratic Nomination making the prediction process much more difficult.  With only one day before voters go to their polling places, there is little time to construct and complete a poll that will give an indication which candidate Buttigieg voters will chose following him leaving the race.

We looked at several polls that asked about second choices. The three polls we reviewed were not very helpful as each poll that asked the question came up with three different answers.  One poll said Buttigieg voters second choice was Biden, another Warren and still another Sanders.

What we do know is, Buttigieg spoke to the Biden campaign shortly before he dropped out of the race. So, from the candidates viewpoint, he thinks Biden will be the candidate who will gain the most.  But, there is another implication from Buttigieg dropping out, three other candidates who are polling slightly below the fifteen (15) percent threshold to gain delegates in many of the Super Tuesday races may receive enough of the vote in many states to get delegates they wouldn’t have received had Buttigieg remained in the Race. Those candidates are Biden, Warren and Bloomberg.

Update Monday 1:35pm:  Senator Amy Klobuchar just announced she is dropping out of the race for the Democratic Nomination and has thrown her support behind for VP Joe Biden.  This changes a great deal of our analysis and we are reevaluating our projections.  Please check back to see those changes

Super Tuesday Political Projections

Alabama

  1. Biden +24
  2. Sanders
  3. Bloomberg
  4. Warren
  5. Gabbard

American Samoa

  1. Sanders
  2. Biden
  3. Bloomberg
  4. Warren
  5. Klobuchar
  6. Gabbard

Arkansas

  1. Biden +10.5
  2. Bloomberg
  3. Sanders
  4. Warren
  5. Gabbard

California

  1. Sanders +7
  2. Biden
  3. Warren
  4. Bloomberg
  5. Gabbard

Colorado

  1. Sanders +7
  2. Biden
  3. Warren
  4. Bloomberg
  5. Gabbard

Maine

  1. Sanders +14
  2. Biden
  3. Warren
  4. Bloomberg
  5. Gabbard

Massachusetts

  1. Sanders +3
  2. Warren
  3. Biden
  4. Bloomberg
  5. Gabbard

Minnesota

  1. Biden +4
  2. Sanders
  3. Bloomberg
  4. Biden
  5. Warren
  6. Gabbard

North Carolina

  1. Biden +16.9
  2. Sanders
  3. Bloomberg
  4. Warren
  5. Gabbard

Oklahoma

  1. Biden +13
  2. Sanders
  3. Warren
  4. Bloomberg
  5. Gabbard

Tennessee

  1. Biden +9
  2. Sanders
  3. Bloomberg
  4. Warren
  5. Gabbard

Texas

  1. Biden +2.5
  2. Sanders
  3. Bloomberg
  4. Warren
  5. Gabbard

Utah

  1. Biden +4.5
  2. Sanders
  3. Bloomberg
  4. Klobuchar
  5. Gabbard

Vermont

  1. Sanders +23
  2. Warren
  3. Biden
  4. Bloomberg
  5. Gabbard

Virginia

  1. Biden +18.5
  2. Sanders
  3. Warren
  4. Bloomberg
  5. Gabbard

After making changes following the withdraw of Buttigieg and Klobuchar and them both endorsing Biden, we now see Biden winning 9 of the 15 races and Sanders winning 6.  This is a total reversal from what we were projecting just two days ago.  If only half of Klobuchar and Buttugieg voters pull the lever for Biden, we believe our projections will accurately reflect the outcome of each of the 15 elections for Super Tuesday 2020.

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*