“2010 will go down as a defining political election that shapes the national political landscape for at least the next 10 years,” says Tim Storey, elections specialist with the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL). Democrats couldn’t have picked a worse year to get hit with a political wave at the state level — The surge of 2010 puts Republicans in total control of redrawing congressional maps for more than 40% of the seats in the House of Representatives.
Politisite Political Projections for the House of Representatives called for a 53 +/- 4 which translated to +49-+57 gain for the GOP. Actual results were a bit higher at +61 seats. Our analysis beat most pollsters projections for this race.
It’s an especially challenging year for dozens of Democratic incumbents. Here’s a quick rundown of the party’s most vulnerable members. AL-2: REP. BOBBY BRIGHT: The freshman has voted against key Democratic bills and even said he won’t vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker, but in this GOP-leaning district, it still might not be enough to save him. AZ-5: REP. HARRY MITCHELL: The two-term Democrat faces a rematch with Republican David […]
2010 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACE CHART Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged. Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage. Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning. Democrats currently have 91 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up. Republicans currently have 9 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up. […]
With only 15 days to go until the election, we’re going to be upping the frequency of our forecast updates somewhat. Today, we’ve re-run the numbers for the Senate, and they show little change in the overall likelihood of a Republican takeover. The model gives Republicans a 17 percent chance of winding up with at least 51 Senators after Nov. 2. That’s essentially unchanged from our previous update, from last […]
The Cook Political Report’s current outlook is for a Republican net gain of 35 and 45 seats, with the odds of an outcome larger than that range greater than the odds of a lesser outcome. A turnover of 39 seats would tip majority status into Republican hands. At this point, only 214 House seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, while 181 seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Republican, and […]
The Political polling analysis site, FiveThirtyEight, is now projecting a possible loss of fifty congressional seats for Democrats. Most pollsters have been projecting that Republicans may take back the House of Representatives but not a greater majority that Democrats enjoy.